This is where you could find some of the greatest value, high upside opportunities in all of sport betting. As PGA Tour fans know well, playing with the lead is not always ideal. The chasing pack is always lurking on the back 9 on Sunday, and just 1 stumble by the leader can change the outcome of golf history.
The elite golfers have the lowest pre-tournament odds. However, the odds shuffle a great deal once the golf tournament is in play. So, if one of the top players you’re eyeing gets off to a flat start & finishes round 1 at even par/6 shots back of the leader, their odds will go south, allowing you to capture far more attractive odds than the initial pre-tournament odds.
Here’s a few illustrations of such:
The Birth of Tom Kim
2022 Wyndham Championship: Tom Kim pre-tournament odds to win were +3500 (35/1).
*A $100 wager would pay $3,500 if Kim were to win
Kim opened his tournament with a quad bogey on #1. Yes, a snowman 8 on the card on his 1st hole. Kim’s odds plummeted, as they should have, to +30000 (an odds category usually reserved for the longest of long shots, namely players who haven’t won since the 2000’s or complete no-names on TOUR).
Now, just 1 hole into the tournament, a $100 bet on Kim would pay out $30,000. A cool $26,500 price just 1 hole into the tournament. Kim rallied back immediately, miraculously clawing back to -3 on the day. His odds were re-installed to +3200 (nearly his pre-tournament odds), and a price never to be seen again on the young sensation.
Fast forward to Sunday, Kim entered 2 shots back of the lead. His odds at +1200 (12/1). His final round 61 propelled him to his 1st TOUR win, as he became the 1st player ever to win an event on TOUR after carding a quad bogey on the opening hole.
Hideki Being Hideki
2021 WGC FedEx St Jude: Hideki Matsuyama’s pre-tournament odds to win were +2500 (25/1)
*A $100 wager would pay $2,500 if Matsuyama were to win
Entering Sunday, Hideki trailed by 5 shots in a crowded leaderboard. His odds reflected his long-shot chances, reaching a high watermark of +25000 in the middle of the final round.
*A 100 wager would pay $25,000 if Matsuyama were to win
So imagine, if one were to have bet Hideki on Sunday, as supposed to Thursday, that’s a $22,500 profit swing on the same $100 risk.
Matsuyama torched the course on Sunday with a final round 63. Ultimately, he played his way into a 3-man playoff but lost to Abe Ancer. Regardless, Matsuyama put himself in an incredible position to steal the golf tournament, and nearly cashed out a whale of a bet for the Sunday bettor.
The key here is WHEN you bet is an extremely vital aspect to golf-betting, as you’re able to wager on top players at premium odds if you time the bet up properly.